The Problem With Offshore Banks

 "What's the best way to rob a bank? Start one."

Many people have heard that old saw. But it's no longer accurate. The best way to rob a bank is to control a government... any old government will do these days.

It wasn't always like that. You see, for most of modern history, governments knew to keep their hands off banks. Whether led by kings, prime ministers, presidents or dictators, states understood that the first time they raided a private bank for loot would be the last. Bankers would close up shop and go somewhere else, and the next time the rulers needed to borrow some cash, there would be no lenders left in town.

My, how times have changed! Not only do modern governments feel perfectly free to steal from local banks or from offshore banks... they actively compete with each other to do so.

Guilty as Not Charged

It's more important than ever to be choosy when picking an offshore bank.

A few weeks ago, the government of Honduras seized the property of one of the country's leading businessmen - including the bank his family owned. The bank was liquidated, leaving over 200,000 local and foreign clients in the lurch.

Seizures and forced liquidations aren't uncommon, of course. Courts all over the world order such things all the time when individuals or organizations are convicted of crimes. What made the Honduran case unusual is that there was no court, no trial and no crime.

You see, a relative of the Honduran businessman in question had been arrested in the U.S., where extrajudicial asset forfeiture is practiced.

In the Land of the Free, federal, state and local authorities can and do seize all sorts of property on just about any pretext, simply by asserting that the property (a car, a house, a farm, cash, etc.) is somehow associated with a crime. They don't have to prove this - their own say-so is all they need. The owner of the seized property doesn't have to be guilty of anything, or even be charged with a crime. Instead, he or she has to prove that the property isn't "guilty." Most of these owners never manage to come up with the money, time or other resources needed to do so. So they lose their property, which is usually sold for profit or used by the government.

Get While the Gettin's Good

Knowing this, the Honduran government reasoned that it was likely that property in the U.S. belonging to the Honduran businessman's family would be seized by the U.S. authorities. They concluded that if this happened, the businessman's local bank might not be able to meet its commitments, angering a lot of local depositors who are also voters (or government officials).

So to get a jump on the process, so to speak, the Honduran government seized the bank before the U.S. government could get their hands on related property. It was a preemptive raid, not based on any proven violation of Honduran or U.S. law, but rather on the knowledge that if they didn't act first, the Yankees would. It's like a scene in a Western movie where one set of robbers races another to catch up with the stagecoach.

You might think this is a sui generis case, shaped by the U.S.' peculiar asset forfeiture practices. Maybe so... but the underlying logic behind Honduras' action has recently been globalized.

One Global Tax System, But Many Governments

Here's why: The G-20 recently adopted a global financial-information-exchange protocol, inspired by the U.S.' Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). Over the next few years, financial institutions everywhere will be sucked into a web of reporting designed to ensure that nobody can keep money secret from any government. Whether they like it or not, banks will have to hand over client information to their own governments, who will then share it with others.

It's easy to see how that will make tax enforcement easier. But it may also result in some nasty unintended consequences along the lines of the Honduras case.

If the G-20 data-sharing plan works as planned, government officials everywhere will be able to monitor changes in the offshore financial holdings of local individuals or businesses. This sort of intelligence could trigger precisely the sort of preemptive strikes that took place in Honduras. A big local business is losing money in its overseas operations? Better grab its local assets now, before a foreign court can seize them as part of a bankruptcy proceeding. Ditto for individuals.

The bottom line here is that, as always, government action - the G-20 reporting web - will create a new set of incentives that will have unpredictable consequences. The only thing we can be sure of is that government will look after its interests... not yours.

The world of offshore banks is becoming more complex. That's why it is absolutely critical that you have an inside guide to the most recent developments... so you can stay one step ahead of the government thieves.

The Next Shoe to Drop

 In 2014, when we forecast that the US dollar would appreciate to levels that the masses could not fathom, many thought we were nuts. How could we make such a prediction when at the same time, we were highlighting the massive, unsustainable US debt situation?

And it wasn't just that the US was in a serious debt situation, it was the how aggressively they were adding to that massive debt. It took the US almost 220 years to rack up its first $8.5 trillion in debt... then they doubled it in the last 8 years alone.

The US total Federal debt is now over $18 trillion & growing.

While the US continues to pile on more debt, the amount the government must pay to service that debt increases. According to the US Treasury Dept data, last year the US government spent $430 billion just to pay the interest to service their outstanding debt.

That is a mind numbing number... $430 billion to cover just one year's interest on the debt. And that is when interest rates are at historic lows. What happens when the interest rates 'normalize,' & double from current levels? Obviously, the payments to service this debt would also double.

So we understand why people get confused when we highlight all these minefields, yet at the same time forecast that the US dollar is going to reach levels that no one else can imagine.

The 'least ugly'

The US dollar will collapse eventually, but not yet. One of the main messages that we keep preaching is that we are in a global economy, & while the US has built up a massive, unsustainable level of debt, an amount that can never be paid off, there are other countries & regions that are in even more dire trouble than the US. The reality right now is, the US is the 'least ugly' of a group of very ugly global economies.

While rising rates will hurt the US economy, it will massacre many of the Emerging Market countries & companies. Why? - because these countries & companies have accumulated huge amounts of US dollar denominated debt.

When the US Federal Reserve started dropping the interest rates in 2008, it flooded the globe with cheap money. Hedge funds & large investors jumped in on this US dollar carry trade (borrow in US Dollars & then re-invest in other assets).

It seemed like a no-brainier to them. if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%, & move that money into anything yielding more... you could make a killing. Hedge funds were borrowing $10 million, paying just $25K in interest & then turning around & buying some Emerging Market bonds yielding 8%-11%. locking in massive returns.

What could go wrong?

It wasn't just hedge funds or investors that were taking advantage of this cheap US money, governments & companies also borrowed in US Dollars to fund various projects. Everyone was scooping up this cheap money & re-investing it in other areas. The latest estimate that we can find show the total amount of money borrowed in US dollars & invested in other assets = $9 trillion.

Now the Fed is looking to 'normalize' rates. With rising interest rates in the US, the ensuing rise in the value of the dollar will wreak havoc among emerging markets' governments, financial institutions, corporations, & even households. Because they have borrowed trillions of dollars in the last few years, they will now face an increase in the real local-currency value of these debts, while rising US rates will push emerging markets' domestic interest rates higher, thus increasing debt-service costs further.

We keep reading & hearing various analysts warning of the demise of the US dollar. Yes, eventually, the US dollar will come under serious pressure, but that time is not now. What these mainstream analysts keep missing is that we live in a global economy & right now the US is NOT the big problem.

Look at this chart... it tells the story. The US dollar is gaining strength against ALL major currencies.

It also explains why commodities, precious metals etc are getting hit, they are priced in US dollars. When the dollar rises, the value of those assets declines.

In order to survive this coming economic tsunami, you need to stay clear of:

  • long-term bonds, especially Euro & Japanese bonds
  • the Euro & the Yen

If you are not an American, you want to convert a good portion of your local currency to US dollars on any rally in your local currency.